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Looking for the best bets on the board for week 3 of the 2021 NFL season? Our experts will take care of you!
For the first list of games, they are considering the Falcons and Giants tally, as well as the gap for two underdogs. Find out why they’re picking the Chargers to take out the Chiefs and the Lions to hand it over to the Ravens this week.
NFL odds and picks
Crows vs. Lions
Sean Koerner: The Ravens are coming off an emotional 36-35 victory over the Chiefs in Sunday Night Football, so I see that as a potential disappointment game.
At the time of writing, 66% of the action is in Baltimore, but the line has remained parked at -7.5 (check real-time public betting data here). There are many reasons sharps can be on the Lions here.
The Ravens continue to face bad injuries. LT All-Pro Ronnie Stanley remains out and the defense will be without Derek Wolfe, Brandon Williams and Justin Houston.
Baltimore’s ravaged defense, coupled with Jared Goff’s willingness to take what the defense gives him when he’s lagging behind, make the Lions a serious threat for backdoor cover here. We’ve seen them pull off a miraculous backdoor ‘push’ in Week 1 against the 49ers. I’m only interested in getting the Lions at the key number of +7.5 here.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
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Michel Arinze: I love this place for Los Angeles, especially after a loss. You could argue that if you started a team and Patrick Mahomes was off the board, you would likely pick Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert as the best player available.
But let’s focus on the Chiefs for a moment. When you watch this team, it’s almost like they get bored sometimes realizing that offense can overcome any mistakes or obstacles they make throughout the day. And if we look at the team structure, Kansas City uses a “bend but don’t break†style of defense. The Chiefs allow teams to have everything in front of them to avoid giving up the big game. This is a calculated risk as the assumption is that their touchdown efficiency will be too difficult for their opponents to overcome throughout. Match.
Kansas City was sixth last season with 3.4 TDs per game. Thanks to two games this season, they are ranked second with 4.5 per game. Defensively, the Chiefs have allowed 2.7 touchdowns per game, and this season that number is 4.5. As long as that margin is less than one, getting seven points there with the underdog is a game you should play more times than not.
Here are two things to note for this game: The visiting team are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 games. Kansas City is on a 0-4 ATS streak. The Chiefs are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
Chargers are widely available at +7, but I will be buying the hook at +7.5 to avoid a possible surge.
Falcons vs. Giants
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Chris Raybon: After knocking out the Falcons as favorites against the Eagles in Week 1 and then against the Buccaneers in Week 2 (via tease), it’s finally time to buy low on Atlanta – Arthur Smith has shown that he was a brilliant offensive spirit in Tennessee, and I expect the first-time head coach’s team to improve as the season progresses.
The reason I disappeared from Atlanta in 1-2 weeks was because he was poorly outmatched in the trenches (correctly evaluating the battle of the offensive line against the defensive line on both sides is the key to being a profitable NFL bettor in the long run). But in this Week 3 game, the Falcons should be able to stand up to a Giants front that has only knocked the quarterback down three times in two games. And defensively, the Falcons won’t be great, but the game against the Giants’ low offensive line is significantly better than the top units Eagles and Bucs.
The Giants covered on the road last week, and now they’re getting a basket (or more in some books) at home. That was the formula for betting on the giants: Giants stink at home, hit the road and surprise people, then come back down to earth just in time to be overrated for what turns out to be a nasty performance in the Meadowlands. of New Jersey.
Case in point: According to our data from Action Labs, Daniel Jones is 10-4 ATS on the road, but only 4-10 ATS at home.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Atlanta wins this game straight away. I like the Falcons on the gap to a basket or better.
Falcons vs. Giants
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Billy Ward: The Falcons are allowing 40 points per game so far this season. Yes, they played against Tom Brady and the Bucs, but they also allowed 32 points against the Eagles. On the other side of the ball, the Giants’ defense allowed Washington, led by substitute Taylor Heinicke, to accumulate 30 points.
These two teams are currently in the bottom six in the league in terms of DVOA. The offensives of both teams also showed some life. Daniel Jones was impressive against a strong Washington defense – the Giants ended up scoring 29 points. His rushing ability has been critical so far this year, and I expect Saquon Barkley to improve upon his return from last year’s ACL tear.
Matt Ryan looked better in week two, making 76% of his throws en route to 300 yards. The three interceptions he threw hurt the Falcons, but turnovers help when we’re betting on overs. Most of the other books have increased this line to 47.5, but for now BetMGM is holding out at 47. I would continue to place this bet at 47.5 (-110), but it is important to look for the best line.
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